▲ South Korea national football team head coach Hong Myung-bo, competing in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, watches his players train at Chivas Valle Verde in Zapopan, near Guadalajara, Mexico, on June 8 (local time).
Football statistics site Opta has projected a high probability of victory for the South Korean national team, predicting a 42.9% chance of defeating the Czech Republic in their opening Group A match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Today (June 10, KST), Opta released a partially revised prediction of the World Cup group stage results using its supercomputer on its website.
Having previously predicted the expected performance of the 48 participating nations on June 2, Opta slightly adjusted its forecasts through additional simulations.
The most notable change is the predicted outcome of the first match in Group A.
Opta highly rated South Korea's chances of winning the opening match against the Czech Republic at 42.9%.
It projected a 31.1% chance for a Czech Republic victory and a 26.0% chance for a draw.
Although South Korea slightly trails the Czech Republic in their head-to-head record with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, their last encounter was 10 years ago, making it difficult to attach much significance to the record.
In the FIFA World Rankings, South Korea (25th) is ranked higher than the Czech Republic (40th).
Regarding the South Korea-Czech Republic match, Opta introduced their recent head-to-head history, stating, "In their last meeting in June 2016, South Korea won. At the time, South Korea took the lead with an opening goal by Yoon Bit-garam in the 27th minute, and Suk Hyun-jun added another in the 40th minute. The Czech Republic only managed to pull one back through Marek Suchy in the first minute of the second half."
It added, "This year, South Korea's attack is led by Cho Gue-sung (Midtjylland) and Son Heung-min (LAFC). Both players have scored two goals each, making them the team's joint top scorers," and "For the Czech Republic, Ladislav Krejci (Wolverhampton) and Patrik Schick (Leverkusen) have shown a threatening presence, each scoring two goals this year."
Opta predicted South Korea's performance in Group A as a 22.4% chance of finishing first, 28.4% for second, 26.8% for third, and 22.4% for fourth.
Consequently, it projected South Korea's probability of advancing to the round of 32 at 70.1%.
Mexico was given the highest probability of winning the group at 48%, while the Czech Republic trailed South Korea (22.4%) with an 18.4% chance.
The Czech Republic's probability of advancing to the round of 32 was also lower than South Korea's at 64.2%, leading to the prediction that South Korea will advance to the round of 32 as the runner-up of the group.
There are also slight changes to South Korea's expected performance compared to the predictions released on June 2.
Previously, Opta projected South Korea's chances as 70.35% for the round of 32, 33.52% for the round of 16, and 12.74% for the quarterfinals.
It also predicted a 4.02% chance for the semifinals, 1.30% to reach the final, and a 0.36% chance to win the tournament.
However, in the new version, the figures have been slightly upgraded to 70.62% for the round of 32, 33.72% for the round of 16, 12.53% for the quarterfinals, 4.05% for the semifinals, 1.34% to reach the final, and 0.40% to win.
(Photo: Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.