▲ SpaceX
Concerns have been raised that the early inclusion of SpaceX in major indices could create a "reflexive loop" that artificially inflates its stock price.
Major index providers, including Nasdaq, FTSE Russell, and MSCI, have decided to include SpaceX in their indices ahead of the standard schedule.
According to Intropic, a firm specializing in index inclusion forecasts, approximately 30% of SpaceX's floating shares are expected to be held by passive funds within 15 days of its listing, Bloomberg reported on June 10 (local time).
Without early inclusion, this ratio would have been limited to about 4%.
There are concerns that the mere anticipation of mechanical buying demand from passive funds could create upward pressure on the stock price even before funds begin their full-scale efforts to secure shares.
Furthermore, combined with the influence of Elon Musk, the SpaceX IPO, and the artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy, the index products themselves could paradoxically drive up the prices of the very stocks they are required to purchase.
Passive funds currently account for approximately 60% of U.S. equity funds.
Marco Sammon, a professor at Harvard Business School, warned, "One of the reasons for including SpaceX in the indices so quickly is the implicit competition between index providers," adding that "this is a case where index inclusion rules can have a massive impact on stock prices."
He explained that early inclusion reduces the time available for arbitrageurs to accumulate shares, thereby increasing the price impact on passive funds.
Separate research by Professor Sammon confirmed that stocks included early in indices generate an excess return of 5 percentage points leading up to the inclusion date, only to see those gains reverse within three weeks.
Ultimately, this means that passive funds, which are forced to buy at the peak, structurally bear hidden costs.
Bloomberg described this as a form of "shadow tax."
Critics also point out that demand driven by index inclusion could affect the initial public offering (IPO) price itself, potentially hindering the formation of a fair market value at the most critical moment of the listing.
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.