Hidden Cards Keep Oil Prices in Check, But Experts Warn of Potential Surge Starting in July

Even with the Strait of Hormuz—a vital waterway through which 25% of the world's seaborne crude oil passes—effectively blockaded due to the war with Iran, "ghost oil shipments" are being cited as the reason global oil prices have avoided a worst-case scenario.

In an article titled "Oil Leaking from the Strait of Hormuz," CNN reported that crude oil futures have not soared to dangerous levels, noting that "experts hypothesize that far more oil is slipping through the 'double blockade' of the Strait of Hormuz than expected."

In fact, international oil prices have recently shown signs of stabilization.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed at $91.45 per barrel on June 9 (local time), down 2.97% from the previous trading day.

While this is significantly higher than the pre-war level of around $70, it is considerably lower than the recent peak of $114 per barrel.

Foreign media outlets point to the fact that more oil is exiting the Strait of Hormuz than anticipated. According to JPMorgan, an estimated 2.1 million barrels of oil per day passed through the strait covertly during the last two weeks of last month.

Experts analyzed that it is highly likely that oil tankers are bypassing the blockade by turning off their transponders, which are location-tracking devices.

U.S. investment bank Piper Sandler estimated that an average of about 2.9 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz last month via so-called "ghost voyages," including ships that appear to have paid transit fees to Iran.

Analysts also suggest that the transport of crude oil through the East-West Pipeline, which connects Saudi oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the release of strategic petroleum reserves by various countries are supporting the stabilization of international oil prices.

China, one of the world's largest energy consumers, is also utilizing its massive stockpiles instead of increasing crude oil imports.

However, the industry outlook suggests that these methods are merely stopgap measures, and the situation could worsen starting in July.

Piper Sandler has predicted that the average price of Brent crude could reach $130 per barrel between July and August.

In particular, as the U.S. and Iran continue a cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation following the Apache helicopter crash in the Strait of Hormuz, concerns are growing that the full reopening of the strait is becoming increasingly unlikely.

Reported by Kim Minjeong | Video by Jang Yu-jin | Graphics by Lee Jeong-ju | Produced by SBS Digital News
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.