Bitcoin's Glory Days Over? Shocking Forecast Predicts Annual Return of Just 0.6% Over Next Century

A grim forecast suggests that Bitcoin's long-term annual return over the next century will fail to reach even 1%.

Mark Hulbert, a senior columnist for the U.S. economic media outlet MarketWatch, analyzed a fair value model for cryptocurrencies and predicted that by around 2140, when Bitcoin reaches its supply limit, the price will converge to approximately $120,000, or about 180 million Korean won per coin.

Bitcoin soared to the $126,000 level last year, hitting an all-time high, before recently plunging to the $60,000 range. Hulbert argued that this represents "an overextended price returning to its fair value."

This analysis is based on "Metcalfe's Law," which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its participants.

Virtual assets, including Bitcoin, are issued and traded through networks known as "blockchains." For example, if the network size increases by 10%, its value grows by approximately 21%.

When calculating Bitcoin's cumulative supply in terms of network users, the analysis points out that as the supply approaches the 21 million limit, the network growth rate slows down, inevitably leading to a decline in the rate of value appreciation.

Ultimately, back-calculating the long-term return until 2140, when mining is completely finished, results in an annual return of only 0.6%.

Some in the market are warning that "while the value of Bitcoin increases as the number of participants grows rapidly, it is difficult to expect the same surge in returns as in the past, given that the rate of new issuance is gradually slowing down."

Reported by Lee Hyeon-yeong | Video by Kim Na-on | Graphics by Lee Jeong-ju | Produced by SBS Digital News
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.