▲ A press conference on "The Future of Power Supply for AI Infrastructure" held at the Morgan Stanley headquarters in New York, U.S., on June 17 (local time).
The rapid growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry could make power shortages the biggest obstacle to the global economy in the future, according to a recent outlook.
Executives from Morgan Stanley's infrastructure and investment divisions shared this assessment during a press conference held at the firm's headquarters in New York on June 17 (local time).
They predicted that the ability to secure power will become a key factor in national competitiveness and corporate value, potentially leading to a new energy and infrastructure race between the United States and China.
Renato Grandmont, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Office (GIO), projected that U.S. electricity demand could increase by up to 50% over the next decade due to the expansion of AI data centers and the restructuring of the manufacturing sector.
Chris Ortega, Head of Americas for Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Infrastructure Partners, stated, "The U.S. has seen almost no growth in electricity demand over the past 20 years, but we are now at a sharp inflection point," adding that "capital expenditure by the four major hyperscalers (large-scale data center operators) will reach approximately $700 billion this year."
He pointed out that this massive investment in AI has ultimately hit a barrier called power, noting, "The absolute key to data center growth is securing actual, available power within the U.S."
He further estimated that the power demand for data centers is expected to increase from the current level of about 4% of total U.S. consumption to 8% within two years.
Tom Greenberg, Vice Chairman of Investment Banking at Morgan Stanley, identified the time gap between the speed of AI development and power procurement as a major issue.
"AI models change rapidly every six months and require immediate power supply, but utility companies are still accustomed to 40-year planning cycles," Greenberg explained.
There was also an analysis that the competition for AI power is expanding into a geopolitical "energy security" race between the U.S. and China.
Jonathan Fraygle, Head of Power at Calvert, a Morgan Stanley affiliate, assessed that China exerts powerful influence over the clean energy supply chain, to the point where it is being called the "OPEC of the green economy."
He emphasized that since China accounts for 97% of global solar wafer production, countries like the U.S. must work to build domestic supply chains to prevent the risks associated with supply chain concentration in specific nations.
Grandmont analyzed that while the U.S. faces difficulties due to complex permitting processes, China is pushing forward with infrastructure rapidly based on a centralized decision-making structure.
In this regard, Ortega predicted that the future global economy and AI hegemony will solidify into a polarized system: the U.S., which holds an advantage in power availability, intellectual assets, and entrepreneurship, versus China, which possesses overwhelming infrastructure mobilization and agility.
Regarding South Korea's role in the power competition of the AI era, Grandmont noted that "a significant revival is taking place between the U.S. and South Korean governments," mentioning cooperation in the shipping and shipbuilding sectors.
He also assessed that major South Korean companies related to AI infrastructure and technology have successfully entered the U.S. market and have gained access.
Greenberg also mentioned that there is high interest in the U.S. regarding South Korea's nuclear power supply chain and reactor technology capabilities, adding that discussions on nuclear power support and supply chain cooperation are underway at both the government and corporate levels between the two countries.
(Photo: Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.