▲ Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei
As Iran has secured a bilateral agreement with the United States for the first time in 47 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, assessments are emerging that it has laid the groundwork to solidify its position as a dominant power in the Middle East.
Reuters reported on June 18 local time that the U.S.'s official recognition of Iran's sovereignty and declaration of non-interference in its domestic affairs during the negotiations for the end-of-war memorandum of understanding (MOU) represents the greatest opportunity for Iran, while posing a 'disaster' for Israel and other Middle Eastern nations.
If the end-of-war agreement is implemented, Iran will gain practical benefits such as the phased easing of sanctions, the resumption of oil exports, and an influx of massive reconstruction funds, while also achieving the powerful effect of having its current Islamic theocratic regime tacitly accepted.
Initially, U.S. President Donald Trump was known to have started the war while threatening regime change in Iran.
However, the theocratic regime centered around Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei is evaluated to have instead become more consolidated as a result.
This could serve as an opportunity for Iran, which once reigned as the hegemon of the Middle East, to regain its influence.
In particular, the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran used as leverage in negotiations during this war, has emerged as Iran's greatest weapon.
This means that Iran has secured a strategic asset that is far cheaper and more effective than the proxy network it spent billions of dollars building across the Middle East over the past several decades.
Consequently, neighboring Gulf countries have been pushed into new security anxieties, effectively leaving them as the 'losers' of this war, Reuters pointed out.
Gulf sources told Reuters, "Countries are already reshaping their strategic thinking in the wake of this agreement."
While trust in the U.S. security umbrella has declined, Iran's regional influence has grown, leading to observations that moves by various countries to seek compromise rather than confront Iran will accelerate in the future.
In Lebanon, Iran's influence is also expected to grow stronger, centered around the pro-Iranian militant group Hezbollah.
Previously, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun warned the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in a CNN interview on June 5, saying, "This (Lebanon) is our country, not yours," and "We cannot tolerate being used as a bargaining chip."
However, following this agreement, the balance of power has already tilted toward Iran, and with Hezbollah's role in Lebanon further strengthening, the Lebanese government is projected to be inevitably sidelined as a result.
From the perspective of Israel, which attacked Iran alongside the U.S., points are being raised that this end-of-war agreement is nothing short of a disaster.
Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told Reuters, "We went to overthrow that regime (Iran) with U.S. support, but in the end, Washington ended up practically granting legitimacy to that very regime."
He added, "This agreement risks deepening Israel's isolation while consolidating Iran's status."
In particular, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who led this war, is facing a severe backlash at home, raising the possibility of his ouster in the upcoming general election this October.
It is also pointed out that the U.S. has gained nothing from this war.
None of the initial goals—dismantling Iran's nuclear program and overthrowing the Iranian theocracy—were achieved, and critics point out that the U.S. has instead empowered Iran, only increasing regional uncertainty.
Former Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who served during the Joe Biden administration, criticized on X (formerly Twitter) immediately after the ceasefire agreement: "The only 'achievement' of this ceasefire is that the Strait of Hormuz, which was open even before the war started, is likely to reopen, and we will probably pay Iran to do so."
The British broadcaster BBC evaluated, "Questions about what exactly this war was for will be unavoidable and will not go away," calling it "the worst foreign policy blunder ever committed by President Trump."
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.